2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie SuperNayr

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We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

The State of the Race

The biggest update in the Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series races happens to be what has been excluded. One can assume the critical and commercial hit FX series “Shōgun” moving to the Drama categories frees up two nomination slots in the Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series Emmy category in particular now that actors Hiroyuki Sanada and Cosmo Jarvis are out of contention.

Julia Fox attends the Soho House Awards at DUMBO House
USA Network series 'White Collar' and 'Suits'

The state of the race now mirrors the state of the race last year, where once again Netflix has the two top contenders: Andrew Scott, who’s performance in “Ripley” had long been pegged as a frontrunner the same way Evan Peters’ turn as “Dahmer” was last year, and Richard Gadd, who led a late breaking hit limited series “Baby Reindeer” the same way last season’s winner Steven Yeun did with “Beef.”

One notable thing about this year’s limited series race is that for the first time in a while voters have had more time to catch up on the performances that ostensibly will receive awards attention. Matt Bomer in “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime), Jon Hamm in “Fargo” (FX), David Oyelowo in “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+), and Tony Shalhoub in “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock), for example, all premiered toward the end of 2023, and therefore were all in the mix during the winter awards season (so Golden Globes, SAG Awards, etc.)

One challenge facing some shows that have a history with the Emmys, whether it is “Band of Brothers” and “The Pacific” follow-up “Masters of the Air,” or the fourth season of “Genius,” centered this time on both Martin Luther King Jr. and Malcolm X, is that they boast more than one contender for Lead Actor, so while Austin Butler and Kelvin Harrison Jr. are the more well-known stars of those respective shows, they are in contention against their co-leads Callum Turner and Aaron Pierre, who fit more into the breakout narrative that also benefits someone like “The Sympathizer” star Hoa Xuande.

If there is ever a lesson shown by these Limited or Anthology Series categories each year, it’s that star power is not as big of a factor in winning the Emmy as one might assume.

Current Contenders (In Alphabetical Order):
Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
Austin Butler, “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Eric” (Netflix)
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
Jon Hamm, “Fargo” (FX)
Kelvin Harrison Jr., “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Ewan McGregor, “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Showtime)
David Oyelowo, “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
Aaron Pierre, “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
Bill Pullman, “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie” (Lifetime)
Matthias Schoenaerts, “The Regime” (HBO)
Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)
Tony Shalhoub, “Mr. Monk’s Last Case: A Monk Movie” (Peacock)
Hoa Xuande, “The Sympathizer” (HBO)

More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Steven Yeun, “Beef”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Ever since Netflix’s first win in the category five years ago, with Jharrel Jerome for “When They See Us,” the streaming service has had one of its stars win every other year. Should a Netflix star like Andrew Scott (“Ripley”) or Richard Gadd (“Baby Reindeer”) win, it would be the first time Netflix would begin build a streak in the category.
Notable Ineligible Series: André Holland, “The Big Cigar” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Presumed Innocent” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Daniel Brühl, “Becoming Karl Lagerfeld” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Laurence Fishburne, “Clipped” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Nicholas Galitzine, “The Idea of You” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration); Jake Gyllenhaal, “Road House” (the film was not submitted for Emmys consideration)

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